Key concepts. Overconfidence

  • 14 марта 2011 г.
  • 365 Слова
Key Concepts. Overconfidence
Key Concept No.6:. Overconfidence
In a 2006 study entitled "Behaving Badly", researcher James Montier found that 74% of the 300 professional fund managers surveyedbelieved that they had delivered above-average job performance. Of the remaining 26% surveyed, the majority viewed themselves as average. Incredibly, almost 100% of the survey group believed that theirjob performance was average or better. Clearly, only 50% of the sample can be above average, suggesting the irrationally high level of overconfidence these fund managers exhibited.
As you canimagine, overconfidence (i.e., overestimating or exaggerating one's ability to successfully perform a particular task) is not a trait that applies only to fund managers. Consider the number of times thatyou've participated in a competition or contest with the attitude that you have what it takes to win - regardless of the number of competitors or the fact that there can only be one winner.
Keep inmind that there's a fine line between confidence and overconfidence. Confidence implies realistically trusting in one's abilities, while overconfidence usually implies an overly optimistic assessmentof one's knowledge or control over a situation.
Overconfident Investing
In terms of investing, overconfidence can be detrimental to your stock-picking ability in the long run. In a 1998 studyentitled "Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average", researcher Terrence Odean found that overconfident investors generally conduct more trades than their less-confidentcounterparts.
Odean found that overconfident investors/traders tend to believe they are better than others at choosing the best stocks and best times to enter/exit a position. Unfortunately, Odean alsofound that traders that conducted the most trades tended, on average, to receive significantly lower yields than the market.
Avoiding Overconfidence
Keep in mind that professional fund...
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